For most of 2008, the words “beleaguered” and “airline” went together like “chocolate” and “cake.” But things just might get better this year.
On the bad news side of the page, high fuel prices forced huge losses and brought back those familiar whispers of bankruptcy. Then the recession slammed business travel and tourism.
But now, fuel prices have come back to earth. And really, the whole fuel thing forced big steps to become more efficient, cut flights, use efficient aircraft, and to cut other costs. You folks out there paying for baggage and eating Ritz crackers for lunch on jam-packed planes know just what I mean.
Still, it’s become a buyer’s market. The Travel Industry Association predicts a 1.3% drop in leisure travel this year. The airlines are tuning up their marketing machines, and there are deals to be had if you look hard enough. Here are some favorite ways to find them:
•Get on the mailing list — Sign up for programs like “Ding,” Southwest Airlines’ alert service for special fare deals. Most airlines have an e-mail service, like United’s “e-Fares.” They’re easy to sign up for, and they provide short work breaks through the day.
•Lock in on the latest industry news — If travel is big for you, keep up with news within the travel hemisphere. Journalists and industry specialists watch the deals; you can tap their knowledge without too much trouble. I like USA Today’s travel news summaries. The Travel Deals page at bestfares.com always has good deals, too.
•Track the trends. You more analytical types will like the latest feature on the more popular travel search engines. Graphs show the latest trends, and even predictions of what’s to come for airfares to your chosen destination(s). Get the latest fare and buy, or not, recommendation on MSN’s Farecast or Kayak.
I’m into skiing, so I like to watch New York-Denver, for instance. So for mid-January, Farecast shows a $234 round trip on American (AMR) and advises “buy now” with an 80% chance of a $50 increase. Cool.
While talking about “buying” travel, I also think this year’s power dive may have put airlines back on the radar as investments, too. They’ve learned to fly in the worst weather, so to speak, so could any good news finally lead to profits? Keep an eye out at the airports—are the waiting areas filled with unhappy travelers sitting around? Or are things moving smoothly? That might be a good way of checking the airlines’ stock situation.
After all, the airlines have learned to market their product better. Modest fees for forward-cabin seats and priority boarding for business travelers makes more business sense than charging four times the base airfare for a first or business class seat. (Although I don’t like the new baggage charges anymore than you do.) JetBlue (JBLU) even offers a new way to order food for delivery into the gate area at major airports. They’ve also learned to sell through new channels, like gift cards or as premiums for large non-profit donors.
Sure, it’s tough to invest in any business that can control neither its costs nor its prices. But when I see a Southwest Airlines (LUV) at $8 and a JetBlue at $6 and change, I start to wonder — is there blue sky ahead?
You can put an investment “watch” on the airline industry – and the larger travel industry – through the “Travel Stock Market” page of WeSeed. Sign up, fasten your seat belt, and enjoy the flight.
Jennifer Openshaw, author of "The Millionaire Zone", is co-founder and president of WeSeed.com, whose mission is to help real, everyday people use what they know and love to learn about stocks, make smarter money decisions and ultimately take control of their financial destinies. You can reach her at jopenshaw@weseed.com.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of LendingTree, LLC.
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