Credit Card Confidence Sinks to Lowest Level Since March

As the holiday shopping season began, credit card confidence fell in November, sinking to its lowest level since March, according to the latest LendingTree Credit Card Confidence Index.

Every month since September 2018, LendingTree has asked a nationally representative sample of credit cardholders the following: “Think about all of your credit cards. On a scale of 1 to 5 (5 being very confident, 1 being not at all confident), how confident are you that you can pay the entire monthly statement balance on all of those cards in full this month?” Those who responded with 4s and 5s were called confident, while those who responded with 1s or 2s were deemed not confident.

Here’s what you need to know about this month’s data.

Key findings

• Credit card confidence hits its lowest level since March. 59% of cardholders say they’re confident in their ability to pay their credit cards’ monthly statement balances in full this month. That’s down five points from October and is the lowest mark since March’s 59%. It’s the sixth straight November in which we’ve seen a monthly decline in confidence. Meanwhile, 25% say they aren’t confident, the highest percentage since May.
• Women’s confidence plunges to its lowest level since December 2023. Just 48% of female cardholders express confidence, down six points from October. That’s the lowest since December 2023’s 40%. Meanwhile, 70% of male cardholders express confidence, down four points from October.
• Political independents see a massive drop in confidence. 55% of those identifying as independents politically express confidence. That’s an 11-point decrease from October, a month after a 12-point increase. Democrats (down from 65% to 63%) and Republicans (down from 63% to 59%) fell as well, though by smaller amounts.

Confidence hits lowest level since March

Nothing hits credit cardholder confidence quite like the onset of the holiday shopping season.

This is the sixth consecutive year in which cardholder confidence has fallen in November. Nearly six in 10 credit cardholders (59%) expressed confidence in November. That’s down five points and matches the lowest rate since March’s 59%, which is the lowest seen in 2024.

Since we began tracking cardholder confidence in 2018, there has only been one year in which confidence increased in November, the month in which the holiday shopping season traditionally shifts into high gear. In 2018, confidence spiked by 8 points. In the six years since, it has decreased — often significantly.

• 2019: Down 2 points
• 2020: Down 10 points
• 2021: Down 9 points
• 2022: Down 9 points
• 2023: Down 1 point
• 2024: Down 5 points

As a whole, however, the year has been more positive for cardholder confidence than previous years. That marks a major deviation from a trend that began after confidence peaked at 74% in October 2020. Consider the monthly averages for each of the past several years:

• 2020: 67% confident
• 2021: 66% confident
• 2022: 62% confident
• 2023: 59% confident

While those yearly average declines aren’t huge, their consistency is noteworthy. After all, multiple years of small decreases add to a larger one, and that’s what we saw through the end of 2023. However, it appears that those declines might be a thing of the past. Despite the volatility, 2024’s monthly average is 62% confident, a significant jump from 2023 and equal to 2022.

Women’s confidence sinks to 2024 low

Fewer than half of cardholding women (48%) express confidence, while 34% say they aren’t confident. That 48% is down six points from October. It’s the lowest total since December 2023, when confidence sunk to 40%, the low-water mark in the index’s history. Men’s confidence fell as well, dropping from 74% in September to 70% in October.

Both men and women have expressed more confidence in 2024 than in 2023. So far in 2024, an average of 70% of men have said they’re confident, versus 67% in 2023. For women, an average of 54% have said they’re confident in 2024, compared with 52% in 2023.

What hasn’t changed, however, is that there’s a massive gender gap. In the index’s six-plus-year history, there’s never been a month in which women have been more confident about their credit card bills than men. In fact, there have only been eight months in which the gender confidence gap fell to single digits, but none since July 2021. (The gap was seven points that month, equaling the record low set in April 2021.)

In November 2024, that gap is 22 points, up two points from October.

The average gap since the start of the index is 15 points.

Political independents see confidence plunge

With the election behind us — the survey was fielded Nov. 6-8, after the Nov. 5 election — we see only a small gap in credit card confidence between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats reporting greater confidence. Cardholders from both parties are slightly less confident than in October, with Republicans (down four points to 59%) seeing a larger decrease than Democrats (down two points to 63%).

Looking beyond the parties, a very different picture emerges. Among those who identify as political independents, we see a significant drop in confidence in November. Now, 55% of independents say they’re confident, down significantly from 66% in October. However, this big drop comes on the heels of a 12-point increase the month before, which pushed confidence among independents to its highest level of 2024. This recent volatility bears watching as 2024 closes, a new year begins and a new president takes office.

Strong close to 2024 likely, followed by uncertainty over new president, Fed cuts

I expect cardholders to end 2024 strong, given that we’ve seen confidence increase in December in five of the past six years. Last year was a notable exception, with confidence falling seven points as Americans wrestled with inflation. From 2019 to 2022, however, we saw confidence increase by an average of six points each December. While inflation is still unquestionably a problem, it’s moderated somewhat. Factor in recent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve — and the possibility of another at its December meeting — and I expect that we’ll see a bump in confidence in December similar to those from 2019 to 2022.

One of the best things cardholders can do — whether they feel good or wobbly about their finances — is knock down their credit card debt. If you don’t, sky-high APRs mean it’ll only continue to grow. The good news is you have options. A 0% balance transfer card might be your best weapon against high interest rates, though a personal loan can help, too.

And don’t forget that you might be able to lower your interest rate with a phone call. A June 2024 LendingTree survey found that 76% of cardholders who asked for a lower interest rate on their credit card in the past year got one, with an average rate reduction of 6.5 points. That can turn a 30.00% card into a 23.50% card or a 24.00% card into a 17.50% card. It’s absolutely worth the call.

Find your perfect card in 30 seconds. Check your approval odds so you can shop smarter.

Methodology

LendingTree commissioned QuestionPro to conduct an online survey of 2,016 Americans ages 18 to 78 from Nov. 6-8, 2024. The survey was administered using a nonprobability-based sample, and quotas were used to ensure the sample base represented the overall population. Researchers reviewed all responses for quality control.

Media inquiries about the Credit Card Confidence Index

Want to talk to Matt — author of “Ask Questions, Save Money, Make More: How to Take Control of Your Financial Life” — about the latest Confidence Index numbers? Email him at [email protected]. You can also reach out via X at @bymattschulz or Instagram at @bymattschulz.