Mortgage Rate Predictions for March 2026: When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down?
If you’ve been waiting for mortgage rates to come back down to earth, you’re not alone. And you’re not crazy for holding out: Rates have finally dipped below 6%, reaching a three-plus-year low.
But even with lower rates, affordability remains a real challenge for most buyers. The good news? Peak homebuying season is around the corner, and a busier spring market could open up more options — even if the perfect conditions many buyers have been waiting for are still a ways off.
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The rate outlook
Expect rates to hover around 6%, with possible dips below that threshold. Understand, though, that the sub-3% rates of the pandemic era likely aren’t coming back.
Jump to: LendingTree’s rate forecast.
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For homebuyers
Buy now if you can afford the payments, plan to stay for at least five years and find the right home. March’s seasonal pricing could save you $9,450 versus buying in late spring.
Jump to: Should you buy a home this month?
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For refinancers
Refinance if your current rate is above 6.48%
Hold off if your rate is below 5.98%
Jump to: Should I refinance now?
Mortgage rates forecast for March 2026: Will interest rates continue to drop?
The short answer: Mortgage interest rates are expected to remain elevated in March — more than double the lows seen in 2021 — although gradual decreases will likely bring rates to just under 6.0%.
Current mortgage rates for March 2026
are averaging:
6.20%
are averaging:
5.35%
What’s been happening with mortgage rates
National average rates ended February at a low not seen in more than three years, but experts don’t anticipate they’ll fall significantly over the course of March or 2026 as a whole.
“Given that it is unclear when the Fed will cut rates again, we may see recent mortgage rate declines slow,” says Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst.
Fannie Mae agrees, projecting average 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to close the first quarter of 2026 at approximately 6.1%, according to its latest housing forecast.
Even though mortgage rates have already managed to dip below 6% this year, it’s almost certain they’ll remain high compared to the levels seen during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when average 30-year mortgage rates were around 2.65%. Those record lows, as nice as they were, might not ever be seen again in our lifetimes.
Rates have fallen by over three-quarters of a point since June and nearly a full point since last January, and that’s a big deal. For example, on a $500,000 home with a 30-year mortgage at 7% with a 10% down payment, you’d pay $3,895 per month. Drop that rate to 6.10% and your payment falls to $3,628. That’s a difference of $267 per month, which can be really significant to the average American family on a tight budget.
Should I buy a house now or wait? Home affordability in March 2026
Home affordability may improve slightly this month, but not dramatically. March’s seasonal advantages and minor rate drops may help some buyers, but elevated rates and high home prices mean affordability remains tough for most Americans.
How are these grades calculated? Jump to our affordability grades section to find out.
Here’s more detail about what’s happening with each of these factors and what it all means for buyers this month:
What’s happening with home prices
Historically, March is the fourth-cheapest month of the year to buy a home.
The median price per square foot in March 2024
vs. $194 per square foot in May 2024, the priciest month that year
The amount you would have saved by purchasing in March instead of May 2024
What’s happening with housing inventory
More homes are hitting the market, which could mean some small price breaks are on the horizon:
- Inventory rose 7.8% between December 2024 and December 2025.
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However, more than 80% of homeowners are locked into rates below 6%
and are reluctant to sell. This “mortgage rate lock-in effect” continues to limit supply.As of the fourth quarter of 2024, according to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency
Still, home affordability remains low
Although affordability has improved over the last year, it remains a struggle for most Americans. The annual income needed to qualify for a median-priced home exceeded $124,000 as of early 2026 — more than double what it was in 2019.
The numbers paint a stark picture of this affordability crisis:
Of metro areas saw price increases in Q4 2025
Median home price (↓3% versus last year)
Median monthly mortgage payment
What to know about mortgage rates
The Federal Reserve declined to cut rates at its first meeting of the year and isn’t likely to make a cut in March. But, even if it does, rates wouldn’t necessarily go down. Here’s why:
- Rate cuts affect adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) directly, but fixed-rate mortgages indirectly.
- Falling mortgage rates can spark rising home prices. If rates do fall, whether the balance will tip toward increased affordability or a troublingly hot housing market remains to be seen.
- The Fed may adopt a more aggressive strategy this year than it did in 2025, in part because a new chairperson will take over this summer.
Don’t wait for perfect conditions. Focus on what you can afford now, shop with multiple lenders for the best rate, and take advantage of early-in-the-season pricing benefits if you’re ready to buy. Schulz urges homebuyers to negotiate their mortgage rates and fees — especially during peak homebuying season when home prices tend to edge higher.
There’s reason to hope that rates will fall, making the peak homebuying season a little more affordable this year. Even a fraction of a point difference on an interest rate can save you hundreds or even thousands of dollars over the life of the mortgage.
Should you refinance in March 2026?
Homeowners looking to refinance are finally catching a break. Refinance applications have surged as rates have been dropping, making it worthwhile for more people to consider refinancing.
Refinance volume versus last year
Of mortgage applications are refinances
Current refinance rates for March 2026
30-year Refinance Rates
are averaging:
6.60%
15-year Refinance Rates
are averaging:
6.07%
Expert advice on when to refinance
It’s typically smart to hold off on a refinance until you can qualify for a rate that’s at least 50 basis points
No matter the market conditions, homeowners should always know exactly what benefit they’ll get out of a refinance before committing to one. For example, if you’re refinancing an ARM to a fixed-rate loan, tapping your equity with a cash-out refinance or getting a new interest rate that will lower your mortgage payments.
Does refinancing make sense for you now?
For most homeowners, refinancing only makes sense if you’re saving at least 0.50% and plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup closing costs.
| Your current rate | Recommendation | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 6.48% to 6.73% or higher | Refinance now | You could save significantly by refinancing. This is the sweet spot where the rate difference (at least 50 basis points) makes refinancing worthwhile despite closing costs. |
| 5.98% to 6.48% | Compare offers, but gains will be modest | You’re in the same range as current refinance rates. You might save $50 to $100/month, depending on your loan size, but closing costs could take several years to recoup. |
| Below 5.98% | Wait | You already have an excellent rate. Refinancing now would likely increase your rate, not lower it. |
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Special circumstances
Even if your rate is lower than 5.98%, refinancing might make sense in these situations:
- Converting an ARM to a fixed-rate loan. If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage that’s about to reset or you want payment stability, refinancing to a fixed rate locks in predictability even if the rate is slightly higher than your current ARM.
- Cash-out refinance. Need funds for home improvements, debt consolidation or other major expenses? A cash-out refinance lets you tap your home equity. Just ensure the new rate and payment still fit your budget.
- Shortening your loan term. Moving from a 30-year to a 15-year mortgage means higher monthly payments but significantly less interest over the life of the loan.
- Financial emergency. If you’re facing financial hardship and even modest savings would make a real difference in your monthly budget, don’t wait for perfect conditions. Act on the savings you can achieve now.
How to get the best mortgage rates
1. Boost your credit score
Pay your bills on time, minimize your credit card balances and avoid opening several new credit accounts at once. You’ll get some of the best conventional mortgage rates with a 780 credit score or higher.
Learn more about ways to boost your credit score.
2. Compare rates from multiple lenders
LendingTree data consistently shows that consumers who shop around for mortgage rates typically save money. Get a loan estimate from three to five different mortgage lenders and compare the rates and terms you’re offered.
Learn more about our picks for the best mortgage lenders.
3. Consider paying points
A mortgage point costs 1% of your loan amount, and paying for points allows you to “buy” a cheaper interest rate. Read the fine print if you see an online rate that looks lower than what other lenders are offering — there’s a good chance you’ll pay points to get it.
Ready to see competitive rate offers on LendingTree?
Frequently asked questions
Mortgage rates are unlikely to go down to 5% in 2026. LendingTree’s experts predict rates could drop below the 6% threshold — but likely only temporarily.
It’s impossible to say for certain, but our market experts aren’t expecting rates anywhere near 3% for the foreseeable future. In general, experts seem to agree that rates will hover between 6% and 7% for most of the next few years. You may catch rates falling below 6% this year, but don’t expect it to last very long.
You can expect to pay around $3,186 per month for a $400,000 mortgage loan near today’s average rates if you take out a 30-year loan. Of course, the exact amount will change depending on your financial profile and the market conditions when you take out your loan.
Although President Trump has promised to lower interest rates, the reality is that a president can’t unilaterally change interest rates. Interest rates are determined by several factors, including the financial markets and the Federal Reserve — not executive orders or presidential decisions.
Mortgage rates are even more complex, and respond to additional factors like the cost of building materials, employment rates and housing inventory.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy directly affects adjustable-rate mortgages, since their interest rates are calculated using a number — known as an index — that fluctuates with the broader economy. (The Fed’s cuts are to the federal funds rate, which is a benchmark index.) That includes ARMs, credit cards and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
The Fed’s rate cuts indirectly impact fixed-rate mortgages, which can move more independently and, in some cases, can even move in the opposite direction of the federal funds rate. That said, when the federal funds rate drops, mortgage rates tend to follow. They can also drop in anticipation of a federal funds rate cut, as they did just before the Fed’s September 2024 rate cut.
In the summer of 2025, buying an existing home was more expensive than building a new one for the first time since 1989, according to the National Association of Home Builders. However, as of the final quarter of 2025, the trend has reversed itself and new builds are once again more expensive per square foot than existing homes.
The median price of an existing home is $56,328 lower than the price of a new home, according to Realtor.com data from Q4 2025. The report also found that buyers of newly constructed homes get more opportunities to reduce costs, both through builder incentives and mortgage rate buydowns.
Explore whether it’s better to rent or buy in today’s market.
“There’s no reason to think that the housing market is going to crash anytime soon,” Schulz says. Low unemployment and foreclosure rates, as well as a moderate housing inventory increase, are all signs that the housing market is relatively healthy, he adds.
And, if you’re thinking a housing market crash could even bring some benefits — like lower home prices — he offers this reminder: “These things don’t happen in a vacuum. A housing market crash very well might be accompanied by a recession, for example. That would likely mean increased unemployment and greater overall economic uncertainty, leaving people even less able to afford to buy.”
The Supreme Court recently struck down President Trump’s tariffs, but any effect this has on mortgage rates will be indirect. If the ruling changes the Fed’s expectations about inflation in the broader economy, it could cause regulators to hold off on making rate cuts — and, in theory, this could cause mortgage rates to stay higher longer.
A mortgage interest rate is the base rate you’re charged to borrow money, but a mortgage annual percentage rate (APR) is the total cost of taking out a mortgage (the interest rate plus closing costs and fees). Both numbers are expressed as a percentage. For more details, check out our guide to distinguishing an APR versus an interest rate.
Mortgage rates dropped to a historical low of 2.65% in January 2021, when the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to 0% to stabilize the post-pandemic economy.
Haggle for a lower interest rate by using your mortgage offers as leverage. Ask each lender about matching your lowest quoted rate. Consider making a larger down payment, select an ARM loan with a lower initial rate or ask your lender about your mortgage buydown options.
Mortgage rates are gradually declining, with national averages ending February at a three-year low. However, experts predict only a slow, gradual decline rather than any dramatic movement. Rates may briefly dip below 6% this year, but will likely remain well above the historic lows seen during the coronavirus pandemic.
Discuss mortgage rate lock options with your loan officer once you’re under contract on a home and moving through the application process. Rate locks usually last between 30 and 60 days, but they can be longer. Watch your expiration date — you may face a rate lock extension fee if your loan doesn’t close before your rate lock expires.
How we calculate our affordability grades
Think of this like a report card for the housing market. We grade four factors — rates, prices, inventory and seasonal timing — then combine them to show a snapshot of overall housing affordability. The better the grade, the easier it is to afford a home right now.
A: 3.48% or less
B: 3.49% to 3.89%
C: 3.90% to 4.52%
D: 4.53% to 6.58%
F: 6.59% and above
Data source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®
A: 3.48% or less
B: 3.49% to 3.89%
C: 3.90% to 4.52%
D: 4.53% to 6.58%
F: 6.59% and above
Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
A: 1,211,611 or higher
B: 1,044,928 to 1,211,610
C: 794,751 to 1,044,927
D: 613,524 to 794,750
F: 613,523 or less
Data source: Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in the United States from Realtor.com, via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
A: January and February
B: March, September, November and December
C: April, July, August and October
D: May and June
F: Unforeseen or extreme events
Data source: LendingTree analysis: “The $23,000 Secret: January Is the Cheapest Month to Buy a Home”
For each factor we assessed, we then assigned a point value to the grade:
A = 4.0 points
B = 3.0 points
C = 2.0 points
D = 1.0 points
F = 0.0 points
Then, we weigh the sub-scores to arrive at a final grade, since all factors aren’t equally important:
| Category | Weight | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage rates | 35% | Rates have the biggest impact on your monthly payment and long-term costs. |
| Home prices | 35% | Home prices directly determine affordability and how much income you’ll need to bring to the table. |
| Housing inventory | 20% | Inventory affects your options when shopping, and can affect your ability to negotiate in the homebuying process, but doesn't radically change baseline affordability. |
| Seasonal timing | 10% | Seasonality has a minor effect on prices and can change from year to year. |
We then give the final score a grade:
3.26 to 4.00 = A
2.51 to 3.25 = B
1.51 to 2.50 = C
0.76 to 1.50 = D
0 to 0.75 = F
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