Rates could rise well above 7%, pushed up by inflation and/or a move by President Donald Trump to end Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s government conservatorships.
Rates could drop below 6% in response to cooling inflation and fewer tariffs than expected.
While many Americans are worried about an imminent housing market crash, LendingTree experts believe it’s very unlikely to happen. In part, that’s because signs of real trouble, like high mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosure rates, just aren’t there — and that’s a great thing.
Get more details on what to expect from the housing market and economy in 2025.
Florida’s high vacancy rates, paired with high home prices, aren’t surprising — they are typical of areas with beautiful beaches and high vacation appeal. If national mortgage rates remain high, as predicted, Florida single-family home sales are likely to remain flat.
At any given time, about 13% of homes in Miami, for example, stand vacant. Only one other metro area in the U.S. — New Orleans — has a higher vacancy rate at nearly 15%. This trend is largely because vacation rentals and homes often aren’t used in the off-season, and it doesn’t signal a struggling housing market.
Meanwhile, people moving to Florida from out of state continue to fuel a trend of wealthy buyers pushing up home prices. For example, new arrivals to Miami-Dade County in 2024 enjoyed incomes 79% higher on average than the incomes of existing households in the county, according to the Miami Association of Realtors. Higher home prices combined with high interest rates don’t bode well for increased affordability any time soon.
Source: LendingTree mortgage rates study and LendingTree offers data
Floridians took out more VA loans in 2024 than any other state’s residents except Texas. Florida is home to a large community of active-duty service members spread across 19 military bases, as well as more than 1.5 million veterans.
Average loan amount | Percentage of all FL VA loans | Total number of loans | |
---|---|---|---|
Purchase loans | $397,014 | 73% | 29,198 |
Refinance loans | $374,993 | 27% | 10,578 |
Florida is in a unique position when it comes to how the current political climate might affect its home prices. Floridians likely won’t bear the brunt of price increases due to Trump’s tariffs, which are expected to raise building costs across the country by around 5%, according to real estate research firm John Burns Real Estate Consulting. That’s because:
County name | Median home price (Q3 2024) | Difference in home price YoY | Median monthly payment(Q3 2024) | Difference in monthly payment YoY |
---|---|---|---|---|
Alachua County, Florida | $317,060 | $15,710 | $1,810 | -$40 |
Baker County, Florida | $232,750 | $29,180 | $1,330 | -$20 |
Bay County, Florida | $331,150 | $4,740 | $1,890 | -$80 |
Bradford County, Florida | $177,210 | $12,030 | $1,010 | -$70 |
Brevard County, Florida | $355,510 | $7,400 | $2,020 | -$120 |
Broward County, Florida | $476,900 | $39,700 | $2,720 | $80 |
Calhoun County, Florida | $131,710 | $4,950 | $750 | -$60 |
Charlotte County, Florida | $333,180 | -$17,420 | $1,900 | -$300 |
Citrus County, Florida | $274,030 | $16,760 | $1,560 | -$120 |
Clay County, Florida | $349,650 | $34,420 | $1,990 | -$40 |
Collier County, Florida | $611,700 | $34,980 | $3,480 | -$100 |
Columbia County, Florida | $226,360 | $5,900 | $1,290 | -$90 |
DeSoto County, Florida | $148,910 | -$820 | $850 | -$60 |
Dixie County, Florida | $95,240 | -$4,790 | $540 | -$40 |
Duval County, Florida | $332,480 | $15,720 | $1,890 | -$40 |
Escambia County, Florida | $297,390 | $26,960 | $1,690 | -$40 |
Franklin County, Florida | $249,950 | -$3,460 | $1,420 | -$110 |
Gadsden County, Florida | $156,020 | $5,440 | $890 | -$40 |
Gilchrist County, Florida | $197,260 | $19,460 | $1,120 | -$30 |
Glades County, Florida | $112,840 | $14,850 | $640 | -$50 |
Gulf County, Florida | $231,670 | $19,480 | $1,320 | -$100 |
Hamilton County, Florida | $108,510 | $320 | $620 | -$40 |
Hardee County, Florida | $127,190 | -$210 | $720 | -$60 |
Hendry County, Florida | $186,450 | $22,020 | $1,060 | -$80 |
Hernando County, Florida | $314,480 | $22,540 | $1,790 | -$40 |
Highlands County, Florida | $205,320 | $15,450 | $1,170 | -$90 |
Hillsborough County, Florida | $408,390 | $21,840 | $2,330 | -$50 |
Holmes County, Florida | $99,660 | -$2,200 | $570 | -$40 |
Indian River County, Florida | $395,740 | $45,670 | $2,250 | $20 |
Jackson County, Florida | $111,950 | -$9,660 | $640 | -$40 |
Jefferson County, Florida | $200,500 | $16,690 | $1,140 | -$60 |
Lafayette County, Florida | $129,350 | $2,060 | $740 | -$50 |
Lake County, Florida | $336,180 | $12,880 | $1,910 | -$20 |
Lee County, Florida | $386,040 | $21,460 | $2,200 | -$150 |
Leon County, Florida | $314,470 | -$1,050 | $1,790 | -$80 |
Levy County, Florida | $168,470 | $5,540 | $960 | -$70 |
Liberty County, Florida | $115,590 | -$6,020 | $660 | -$50 |
Madison County, Florida | $104,090 | $4,920 | $590 | -$50 |
Manatee County, Florida | $411,090 | -$760 | $2,340 | -$210 |
Marion County, Florida | $265,930 | $4,430 | $1,510 | -$80 |
Martin County, Florida | $453,340 | $3,900 | $2,580 | -$60 |
Miami-Dade County, Florida | $530,660 | $27,530 | $3,020 | $80 |
Monroe County, Florida | $792,300 | $21,020 | $4,510 | -$340 |
Nassau County, Florida | $425,680 | $33,790 | $2,420 | -$50 |
Okaloosa County, Florida | $366,770 | $500 | $2,090 | -$100 |
Okeechobee County, Florida | $175,940 | $5,820 | $1,000 | -$80 |
Orange County, Florida | $423,960 | $25,940 | $2,410 | -$30 |
Osceola County, Florida | $390,100 | $25,020 | $2,220 | -$20 |
Palm Beach County, Florida | $533,810 | $46,110 | $3,040 | $90 |
Pasco County, Florida | $348,090 | $25,180 | $1,980 | -$50 |
Pinellas County, Florida | $394,160 | $15,510 | $2,240 | -$60 |
Polk County, Florida | $309,760 | $35,930 | $1,760 | -$20 |
Putnam County, Florida | $157,460 | -$3,430 | $900 | -$60 |
St. Johns County, Florida | $553,030 | $50,920 | $3,150 | -$60 |
St. Lucie County, Florida | $383,700 | $26,910 | $2,190 | -$40 |
Santa Rosa County, Florida | $354,490 | $10,370 | $2,020 | -$40 |
Sarasota County, Florida | $436,590 | $15,950 | $2,490 | -$220 |
Seminole County, Florida | $422,290 | $15,750 | $2,400 | -$30 |
Sumter County, Florida | $403,970 | $9,850 | $2,300 | -$170 |
Suwannee County, Florida | $158,150 | $11,640 | $900 | -$70 |
Taylor County, Florida | $98,480 | $2,630 | $560 | -$40 |
Union County, Florida | $157,650 | $730 | $900 | -$60 |
Volusia County, Florida | $348,570 | $34,290 | $1,980 | -$80 |
Wakulla County, Florida | $218,150 | $350 | $1,240 | -$60 |
Walton County, Florida | $430,500 | $2,680 | $2,450 | -$180 |
Washington County, Florida | $153,330 | $5,640 | $870 | -$146,820 |
Credit score | Conventional loan rate | Difference from national average |
---|---|---|
800+ | 6.74% | +0.13% |
780-799 | 6.67% | +0.05% |
760-779 | 6.96% | +0.31% |
740-759 | 6.81% | +0.09% |
720-739 | 7.16% | +0.34% |
700-719 | 7.07% | +0.11% |
680-699 | 7.38% | +0.25% |
660-679 | 7.12% | -0.16% |
640-659 | 7.59% | +0.40% |
620-639 | 7.97% | +0.71% |
Source: ICE Mortgage Technology, average rates given as of 3/4/25
Home insurance in Florida is the most expensive in the nation, costing $361 per month ($4,329 per year) on average, according to LendingTree data. The state is in the middle of an insurance crisis, due to both natural and human factors:
In response, about 20% of Florida homeowners opted out of home insurance altogether in 2024, according to our sister site ValuePenguin. This is a big stressor for Floridians, so it’s no surprise that Florida made it into the top three in LendingTree’s list of states where people feel pressured to move.
If you’re struggling to find insurance, Chubb is the cheapest insurer in Florida, according to LendingTree data: Premiums come to just $191 a month ($2,294 per year).
Purchase loans | Refinance loans | |
---|---|---|
Conventional | 76% | 48% |
FHA | 94% | 74% |
VA | 95% | 87% |
Source: ICE Mortgage Technology
Purchase loans | Refinance loans | |
---|---|---|
Conventional | 37% | 37% |
FHA | 45% | 44% |
VA | 44% | 43% |
Source: ICE Mortgage Technology
Purchase loans | Refinance loans | |
---|---|---|
Conventional | 754 | 737 |
FHA | 691 | 654 |
VA | 725 | 675 |
Source: ICE Mortgage Technology
Remember: While a low interest rate is important, you have to balance several factors when choosing a lender and applying for loans. Your financial situation and life plans — like an impending move or the need to close quickly — should factor heavily into your decisions about how much house you can afford, how much money to put down, whether to pay for mortgage points and other loan details.
Traditional homes built on a prepared site come with the lowest interest rates, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t consider other property types.
Once you’ve applied for a mortgage and received a loan estimate with an offer you like, you should request that the lender give you a mortgage rate lock. This ensures that your interest rate won’t increase before you make it to closing.
It’s customary to lock in a rate with only one lender at a time but it’s not required — if you’re deciding between multiple offers you can lock in with multiple lenders. However, since some lenders charge a fee for this service, locking in with more than one can get expensive.
Looking for more detail on any of these programs? Visit our Florida first-time homebuyer programs and loans page.